Oil Advances on Signs US Stockpile Gains Easing After Harvey

Will the FOMC Meeting Drive the US Dollar and Crude Oil Futures

U.S. shale production for October is expected to rise by 79,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 6.09 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report Monday.Output from the Bakken shale formation is set to rise by 7,900 bpd to 1.06 million bpd, while Eagle Ford oil output is set to fall by 9,000 bpd to 1.27 million bpd, according to the EIA's drilling productivity report.Speculators raised their net long positions in Brent futures and options by 16,962 contracts to 430,699 in the week to September 12, InterContinental Exchange (ICE) data showed, the highest level since March.

OPEC and other producers opted to decrease production by 1.8 million barrels a day in an attempt to rebalance the oil market and support prices.

Oil has risen nearly 6% since Harvey slammed into the Texas coast on August 25, swamping the heart of the US refining industry and disrupting everything from tanker arrivals to gasoline production. The data suggesting refiners will need to step up crude processing followed robust demand growth forecasts last week from the International Energy Agency and OPEC. "If OPEC is really still willing to commit to extending production cuts, that gives this market some room to test the upside here". The move is a bid to support oil prices which have fallen dramatically from over $110 a barrel in 2014, mainly due to a glut in supply and a failure of demand to keep pace, particularly with US shale oil producers adding to global oil supplies.

An OPEC committee concluded the cartel and allied oil producers last month overshot production curbs called for in their agreement, according to two delegates.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures () were at $49.83 barrel at 0021 GMT, 6 cents below their last settlement, but still close to the more than three month high of over $50 per barrel briefly reached late last week. The more-active November futures climbed 60 cents to $50.50 at 12:07 p.m. London time. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.4 million-barrel increase in stockpiles vs. the 3.5 million-barrel increase analysts were expecting. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $US5.60 to November WTI.

But analysts doubt that such an extension would have much of an impact on the overall oil market. The October contract expires at the end of Wednesday's session.

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